Household Formation and the “Second Demographic Transition” in Europe and the US
Insights from Middle Range Models
In this chapter we shall first of all introduce the reader to the basic features of the demographic changes in patterns of household formation, by now often referred to as a “second demographic transition” (SDT), and link these to some more general societal changes that emerged roughly from the 1960s onward. These changes pertain to various domains and include economic transformations as well as cultural shifts. It is clear that we are using a multi-factor explanation for the SDT in which both economic and cultural factors are necessary. None of these factors taken separately are sufficient, and all are non-redundant. But their respective weight and role can vary across societies, and much of this variation is an outcome of historical path dependency.
In this chapter two models will be of assistance in putting the various explanatory mechanisms in perspective. These models form mini-theories, just like what Robert Merton had in mind when he referred to “middle range theories” in sociology. That is why I like to call these models “middle range models”, because they too are of direct use in describing processes while remaining close to a specific body of empirical evidence. The two models that we shall use here are (i) the “Ready, Willing, and Able” model of innovation and diffusion (RWA for short) and (ii) the “footprints” model of selection and adaptation.
The former is a model of preconditions for innovation and diffusion of new forms of behavior and it is ideally suited for identifying the limiting conditions or the bottlenecks in such processes (Lesthaeghe and Vanderhoeft, 1999). The term stems directly from A.J. Coale’s summary reformulation (1973) of conditions permitting the start of the historical, “first” demographic transition. However, a more elaborate RWA-model has been developed subsequently and will be used here.
The footprints model, on the other hand, is designed to show how individual choices during the life course are processes of self-selection, partially oriented by values, but equally to illustrate the feed-back mechanisms of a particular choice upon the initial steering conditions. The model ideally needs panel data for testing, but the mechanism leaves very specific “footprints” that can be detected in cross-sections (without these being adequate substitutes for panels !). The model is in essence of the “life cycle” type, but it accommodates successive cohort shifts as well. In fact the latter are necessary to allow for the observed development of a new demographic regime.
But first we need a brief explanation of what is understood by “a second demographic transition”.
