WT21 – The impact of demographic change

Workshop presentation

At the forefront, for a while, of what was called the population explosion, Europe and China became committed one after the other to a vigorous process of stabilising their populations. By a different mix, on one side and the other, of more or less spontaneous sociological evolutions and political will, Europe and China have also found themselves involved in an unprecedented process in the history of humanity, that of the non-reproduction of the population in the absence of war or of serious food and social crisis. In the two cases, the reproduction rate of the population has dropped below 1, the average number of children per woman falling below the reproduction threshold. The demographic transition, traditionally characterised by a low birthrate and by a lengthening of life expectancy, has also been accompanied by a radical transformation of the family and of the status of women.

In the urban world, in the process of becoming the majority in China as well, new instability in the family units can be observed. The difference in status between men and women, the former oriented towards the outside and the second towards the domestic sphere, has greatly tended to become blurred. Technical means of contraception; aspiration to equality in economic, political and social rights; tertiarisation of economic activity: everything has contributed to upsetting the conception of relationships between the sexes. With the size of migrations from the countryside to the city, the aspiration for consumption and for more individual forms of fulfilment and leisure, and with housing policies that give priority to the limited family unit, the extended family is now only exceptionally living in the same home and sharing their resources and household tasks. The explosion of the number of senior citizens and the extension of retirement age is bringing up new and difficult questions of balance and solidarity between generations. In Europe it’s the whole retirement and pension system that finds itself in upheaval, and in China a race seems to have started between enrichment and the need to ensure, in the relatively near future, living and health conditions for a population of pensioners experiencing explosive growth.

The combination of new medical techniques, especially the identification of the sex of children, along with the persistence of traditional notions in which the birth of a son is essential for the survival of the lineage, is in the process of creating an imbalance in China between boys and girls whose social, cultural and political consequences may be huge.

The objective of the workshop will be to directly compare these different aspects of the demographic and social evolution in China and Europe, and to learn lessons from this comparison for the future.